Assistant Professor of Political Science | Bryn Mawr College
Welcome to my website.
I am a political scientist working on secular-religious cleavage, political parties, social policy and democratic decline, primarily in the Middle East and North Africa. Currently, I am an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Bryn Mawr College. I received my PhD in political science from Harvard University Government Department (July 2021). During the 2021-2022 academic year, I was a Post-Doctoral Fellow at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule ofLaw (CDDRL).
My book project delves into the factors contributing to the limited electoral appeal of secular parties in the Middle East following the popular uprisings of 2011-2013 and examines why they struggled to establish a robust electoral alternative to Islamist parties. Through interviews with party elites, comprehensive candidate surveys, contemporaneous household surveys, and conjoint experiments conducted in Tunisia and Turkey, I demonstrate that secular parties face challenges in political selection and organizational cohesion, resulting in a valence deficit and electoral disadvantage. The dissertation, serving as the foundation for this book project, was honored with the Edward M. Chase Prize for the best dissertation on a topic related to the promotion of world peace from Harvard University’s Department of Government. Additionally, a paper derived from this project received the Best Paper Award from APSA’s Political Organizations and Parties section in 2022.
I also investigate the impact of ethnic and organizational diversity on the quality of social services, the involvement of international organizations in social policies for refugees, youth political and civic engagement, and citizens’ reactions to executive aggrandizement. My research has been published or is forthcoming in Comparative Political Studies, Governance, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Development Economics, and World Development.
Please feel free to contact me for inquiries related to my work at asasmaz@brynmawr.edu.
Office hours (Fall 2023, beginning from Sep 11): Mondays, 4-6pm, Dalton Hall 100G. If you are a Bi-Co student, click here to reserve a spot in the office hours. If not, please send an email.
WHY HAVE SECULAR PARTIES BEEN WEAK IN THE POST-UPRISING MENA?
This project brings a new perspective to a long-standing question in political science and Middle East studies: Why have secular parties remained weak in the aftermath of uprisings, despite their historical and organizational advantages? Predominant political science literature on the Middle East focuses almost exclusively on Islamist parties. The few explanations derived from extant literature attribute the decline of secular parties to weak ideological support for secularism among the Middle Eastern publics, the absence of institutional venues for secular actors to interact with the electorate, or elitism of secular party elites and cadres. Yet, these accounts have not been tested rigorously. Moreover, they do not explain how secular parties remain strong at some historical times and in some subnational areas but not in others.
I argue that the weakness of secular parties in the Middle East is largely the result of a “valence” problem, rather than an ideological mismatch or absence of mobilizing structures. Secular parties suffer from electoral underperformance when and where they lack trust of voters in their capability to solve problems and deliver socio-economic development. The valence deficit of secular parties has two main sources: First, these parties are characterized by intra-party competition and lack of organizational cohesion, i.e. a deficit in the capacity and willingness of party activists and candidates to collaborate and remain unified. Second, they cannot recruit and select competent candidates, who could have built good governance credentials for the party. Voters who witness in-party fighting and a cadre of politicians who seem incapable of solving socio-economic problems turn to alternative parties, mostly Islamists.
I demonstrate the effect of organizational cohesion on electoral strength with subnational analyses for two important secular parties in the region, Nidaa Tounes and Republican People’s Party, in the most recent local elections in Tunisia and Turkey. In both countries, I conducted extensive interviews with central and local political elite, original and representative candidate surveys, and contemporaneous household surveys. Borrowing from organizational psychology and building on earlier studies of organizational strength in political science, I measured the organizational cohesion of parties at the municipal level and show that it is significantly associated with election results. I substantiate my argument with data from post-election interviews and original household survey data on the potential causal linkages between these variables.
This graph shows the relationship between organizational cohesion and secular-Islamist vote difference in the 2018 local elections in Tunisia. Each dot represents a city in which I was able to measure the organizational cohesion of both secular party’s and Islamist party’s local branch just before the elections. The fitted line comes from an OLS regression with various controls. In the cities in the red font, I conducted post-election interviews to better understand how and in which circumstances organizational cohesion was likely to lead to electoral strength.
A second source of valence deficit of the old secular-modernist parties in the region is candidate quality: Secular parties cannot attract the most competent segments of their core constituency, urban professional middle classes, neither as party activists nor as candidates. To substantiate this argument, I provide a detailed descriptive account of political selection pipeline of secular parties, bringing together household surveys, candidate surveys and candidate selection experiments with party officials. I then compare them to the political selection pipeline of Islamist parties, and demonstrate that secular parties end up with less qualified, less competent and less cooperation-spirited candidates.
This graph shows the share of people with higher education (a proxy for competence) among the Islamist and secular voter bases, eligible aspirants and candidates of the two main parties in Tunisia’s 2018 local elections. The data comes from an original candidate survey and a contemporaneous household survey.
Considering the characteristics of the voter base and core constituency of secular-modernist parties, the difficulties secular parties face to construct cohesive organizations and find competent candidates are puzzling. To explain this, I turn to macro-sociological processes: First, more competent segments of the core constituency of secular-modernist parties, which are derived from the urban professional middle classes, have been in a decades-long process of disengagement from party politics, in part because globalizing economic reforms have changed their life strategies and increased their exit options. Members of this social stratum have the professional skills and resources that could have built both organizational cohesion and governance credentials for secular political parties. Instead, they opted to seize opportunities within the private sector, employment in multi-national corporations, and emigration. Second, as state-builders, secular parties have historically nurtured distinct patronage distribution networks, which are in constant competition with each other on the basis of hometown, sect, or personal animosity between leaders. While these patronage networks ensure the survival of the party by incorporating an extensive network of local branches into the center, they give rise to constant intra-party struggles and push members of the urban professional middle classes further away from involvement. Thus, secular parties cannot build functional and reliable organizations that would have brought them electoral advantage.
For description of original data I collected for research, please visit the Data page of this website.
POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS AND PARTICIPATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
How are political parties built and organized in the MENA region? Who becomes a politician and why? How do the party elites and novice politicians react to institutional rules, citizens’ requests and social movements around them?
“Local Political Priorities during Tunisia’s First Democratic Municipal Elections” (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark), in Governance and Local Development in the Middle East and North Africa (Kristen Kao and Ellen Lust, eds.), New York: Columbia University Press, forthcoming.
“What Men Want: Politicians’ Strategic Response to Gender Quotas in Tunisia’s 2018 Municipal Elections,” (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark) – under review
“Political Accountability in New Democracies” (with Chantal Berman, Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark) – presented at MPSA 2019 [EGAP pre-analysis plan]
“How do Party Members Respond to Top-Down Moderation: Evidence from the Islamist Party in Tunisia” (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark) – presented at Political Parties in Africa conference
“Local Political Dynasties in Turkey” (with Tugba Bozcaga and Rabia Kutlu) – in progress
SOCIAL SERVICES IN THE CONTEXT OF ETHNIC AND ORGANIZATIONAL DIVERSITY
How do ordinary people navigate social welfare regimes characterized by diversity of (non-state) provider organizations? Are non-state organizations more likely to discriminate in favor of their co-ethnics? Which type of organizations (religious charities, or secular NGOs) are more likely to provide higher quality services, and why?
“Secular vs. Religious Advantage in Providing Quality health care” (with Melani Cammett) – In progress
“Social Welfare in Developing Countries” (with Melani Cammett), in Oxford Handbook of Historical Institutionalism (Tulia Falleti, Orfeo Fioretos and Adam Sheingate, eds.), New York: Oxford University Press, 2016.
Which organizations provide equal or superior quality for most vulnerable groups, such as refugees? What is the role of international organizations in handling the complexities of social welfare for refugees?
How do citizens respond to presidents’ assaults on democratic institutions? What type of motivations makes citizens more likely to support moves toward authoritarianism, and under which conditions?
How do the countries in the MENA, the region with the highest centralization in public administration, reform their local governance? What are the outcomes of decentralization or efficiency-enhancing reforms?
“Electoral and governance outcomes of municipalization of rural governance” (with Esra Bakkalbasioglu, Tugba Bozcaga and Evren Aydogan) [EGAP pre-analysis plan]
OP-EDs & BRIEFS
“CHP’nin Dönüşümünde ve Seçim Başarısında Parti Örgütlerinin Rolü” Policy brief published by Turkish Foundation for Social, Economic and Political Studies. Also published as a three-part op-ed series at PolitikYol website (1, 2, 3).
“One third of municipal councilors in Tunisia are from independent lists. How independent are they?” Democracy International (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark), July 2018. [English] [Arabic]
“Generational divide in Tunisia’s 2018 municipal elections: Are youth candidates different?” Democracy International (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark), July 2018. [English] [Arabic]
“List fillers or future leaders? Female candidates in Tunisia’s 2018 municipal elections.” Democracy International (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark), July 2018. [English] [Arabic]
“Introducing the Tunisian local election candidate survey (LECS): A new approach to studying local governance.” Democracy International (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark), July 2018. [English] [Arabic]
This course offers an overview on the contemporary politics of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the relevant social (mostly political) science work on it. Each module of the course revolves around a central question that has been keeping social and political scientists busy in the last decades: What triggers risky protest movements in authoritarian settings? Why has the MENA region remained authoritarian despite global waves of democratization? Do monarchies in the Middle East have an advantage in ensuring political stability, and if so, why? Is it impossible to ensure good governance and peace at the same time in divided societies? What are the reasons behind the economic underdevelopment of the MENA region? Students are also invited to think about these “big questions” and take MENA countries as their case studies, while at the same significantly enhancing their contextual knowledge about the region.
POLS 233: Introduction to Research Design and Data Analysis
This course is designed to provide students with a strong foundation in understanding and utilizing research methodologies commonly used in the field of political science. By the end of the semester, students will be proficient in reading and comprehending political science literature, identifying the methodologies employed, and applying the basics of these techniques to their own research projects.
A research-oriented course in empirical political science that has multiple objectives: (1) Creating an opportunity for a deep engagement in the contemporary debate on political parties and other forms of political participation and organization, (2) reflecting deeply on the normative questions of the value and necessity of political parties and partisanship for democracy, representation, accountability, stability and good governance, and (3) creating an opportunity for students to conduct their own (mini) empirical research projects.
Throughout my doctoral study and research consultancy, I worked on collecting original data in challenging contexts, such as collecting candidate data in in the first ever democratic local elections in Tunisia, primary health care centers in Lebanon and a survey experiment just one week before the first ever presidential elections in Turkey.
This page presents information on (some) original data collection projects I have been involved in. If you are interested in using these datasets for research, please contact me at sasmaz@stanford.edu or aytugsasmaz@gmail.com.
SOCIO-POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH CARE QUALITY IN LEBANON
With Melani Cammett (overall principal investigator), and Carmel Salhi and Lara Jirmanus (advisors for public health and medicine-related question modules)
Collected data in 68 primary health care centers in Lebanon
Components included: A survey with chief medical officers, a survey with ~220 doctors, a multiple-choice test with ~170 doctors, direct observation of ~1200 patient-doctor interactions, exit interviews with ~1200 patients
Supported by the Middle East Initiative and the Emirates Leadership Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School
Data and code for “Navigating Welfare Regimes…” (Governance, 2021) available here
LOCAL ELECTION CANDIDATE SURVEY – TUNISIA
With Alex Blackman and Julia Clark
Survey with ~2000 candidates in ~100 municipalities from almost all parties and independent lists, just before the first democratic local elections in Tunisia in 2018
More information on data collection can be found here
Supported by Democracy International, Freeman Spogli Institute (Stanford), Project on Middle East Political Science, Institute for Quantitative Social Science (Harvard)
LOCAL ELECTION CANDIDATE SURVEY – TURKEY
Survey with ~400 candidates in 25 municipalities just before the 2019 local elections (candidates were from the main secular party, CHP, and the main Islamist party, AKP)
Question modules included views on political issues, opinions on party organization, individual and family political background, collective orientation, internal political efficacy, among others
Supported by Institute for Quantitative Social Science (Harvard)
LOCAL ELECTION HOUSEHOLD SURVEY – TURKEY
With Tarek Masoud
Collected data from 2500 households in 50 districts of Turkey, just before the 2019 local elections
Question modules included vote choice, views on political parties and secularism, views on foreign countries and leaders, active political participation, individual and family political background, collective orientation, internal political efficacy, among others
Supported by the Middle East Initiative (Harvard Kennedy School)
SURVEY EXPERIMENT ON SUPPORT FOR SUPER-PRESIDENTIALISM IN TURKEY
With Alper Yagci and Daniel Ziblatt
Collected data from ~2000 households in 125 neighborhoods in Istanbul, Turkey, just before 2018 presidential elections
Random assignment to different polling results, outcome variable is change in support for super-presidentialism
Supported by Ozyegin University and Center for European Studies (Harvard)
Aytuğ Şaşmaz 